步进加速退化试验及其在电子产品可靠性评估中的应用

为快速评估具有高可靠、长寿命特点的电子产品的可靠性，提出了使用步进加速退化试验技术的方法。文中首先给出了步进加速退化的试验方法及基本假设，然后给出了步进退化数据向恒加退化数据的折算方法，在此基础上提出了基于伪失效寿命的步进加速退化可靠性评估算法，最后利用试验数据对该方法进行了验证。该方法与恒加退化试验相比，在保持样本量不变的基础上，可以极大地缩短试验时间，因此，具有更高的效费比。     

Designing a screening experiment for highly reliable products

Within a reasonable life‐testing time, how to improve the reliability of highly reliable products is one of the great challenges to today's manufacturers. By using a resolution III experiment together with degradation test, Tseng, Hamada, and Chiao (1995) presented an interesting case study of improving the reliability of fluorescent lamps. However, in conducting such an experiment, they did not address the problem of how to choose the optimal settings of variables, such as sample size, inspection frequency, and termination time for each run, which are influential to the correct identification of significant factors and the experimental cost. Assuming that the product's degradation paths satisfy Wiener processes, this paper proposes a systematic approach to the aforementioned problem. First, an intuitively appealing identification rule is proposed. Next, under the constraints of a minimum probability of correct decision and a maximum probability of incorrect decision of the proposed identification rule, the optimum test plan (including the determinations of inspection frequency, sample size, and termination time for each run) can be obtained by minimizing the total experimental cost. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 514–526, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10024     

多退化模式下的电子装备可靠性建模

通常加速退化分析中退化失效只考虑或者假设只有一个退化通道,而实际上很多情况下会存在多退化模式.产品的各个退化通道间的关系存在随机性,即任意两个退化通道间不可能只是单一的相关或者独立.在考虑这种相关性的条件下,深入研究了电子产品的性能退化理论和机理,提出了两个多退化模式竞争失效的数学模型,分别阐述了退化通道相关与独立的两种不同情况下产品可靠度评估方法.     

Steady‐state diffusion approximations for discrete‐time queue in hospital inpatient flow management

In this article, we analyze a discrete‐time queue that is motivated from studying hospital inpatient flow management, where the customer count process captures the midnight inpatient census. The stationary distribution of the customer count has no explicit form and is difficult to compute in certain parameter regimes. Using the Stein's method framework, we identify a continuous random variable to approximate the steady‐state customer count. The continuous random variable corresponds to the stationary distribution of a diffusion process with state‐dependent diffusion coefficients. We characterize the error bounds of this approximation under a variety of system load conditions—from lightly loaded to heavily loaded. We also identify the critical role that the service rate plays in the convergence rate of the error bounds. We perform extensive numerical experiments to support the theoretical findings and to demonstrate the approximation quality. In particular, we show that our approximation performs better than those based on constant diffusion coefficients when the number of servers is small, which is relevant to decision making in a single hospital ward.     

可见光助Fenton体系降解芥子气机理研究

以联吡啶铁为催化剂,采用光助Fenton体系在可见光照射条件下（λ〉450nm）降解芥子气。考察了不同反应条件下的降解效果,通过EPR分析确定了反应过程中产生的高活性物种,利用GC—MS和NMR等方法分析了反应的产物,跟踪了反应过程中TOC的变化,并根据实验结果研究了芥子气光催化降解的反应机理。     

Scheduling jobs with piecewise linear decreasing processing times

We study the problems of scheduling a set of nonpreemptive jobs on a single or multiple machines without idle times where the processing time of a job is a piecewise linear nonincreasing function of its start time. The objectives are the minimization of makespan and minimization of total job completion time. The single machine problems are proved to be NP‐hard, and some properties of their optimal solutions are established. A pseudopolynomial time algorithm is constructed for makespan minimization. Several heuristics are derived for both total completion time and makespan minimization. Computational experiments are conducted to evaluate their efficiency. NP‐hardness proofs and polynomial time algorithms are presented for some special cases of the parallel machine problems. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 531–554, 2003     

考虑多性能参数的引信弹簧可靠性评估

弹簧作为引信中常用的储能源,是影响引信可靠性的重要零件,而引信失效会形成重大安全隐患。为了准确预估某引信弹簧贮存期间的可靠度变化,提出了一种基于修正Arrhenius模型的多元正态可靠性评估方法。以应力损失率和永久变形率作为性能参数,设计了恒定应力加速退化试验,获取弹簧在120℃、130℃、150℃和160℃下的退化数据,并采用Anderson-Darling统计量验证退化量的最优分布为正态分布。根据修正的Arrhenius方程,得到弹簧在贮存温度下的退化轨迹曲线。基于多元正态分布建立弹簧贮存可靠度模型,分析弹簧贮存期间的可靠度变化特点。通过与其他可靠度模型对比,该模型预估结果更准确,可为引信的视情维修提供依据。     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014     

Inequality‐based reliability estimates for complex systems

Full‐system testing for large‐scale systems is often infeasible or very costly. Thus, when estimating system reliability, it is desirable to use a method that uses subsystem tests, which are often less expensive and more feasible. This article presents a method for bounding full‐system reliabilities based on subsystem tests and, if available, full‐system tests. The method does not require that subsystems be independent. It accounts for dependencies through the use of certain probability inequalities. The inequalities provide the basis for valid reliability calculations while not requiring independent subsystems or full‐system tests. The inequalities allow for test information on pairwise subsystem failure modes to be incorporated, thereby improving the bound on system reliability. We illustrate some of the properties of the estimates via an example application. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Designing a degradation experiment

Degradation experiments are widely used to assess the reliability of highly reliable products which are not likely to fail under the traditional life tests. In order to conduct a degradation experiment efficiently, several factors, such as the inspection frequency, the sample size, and the termination time, need to be considered carefully. These factors not only affect the experimental cost, but also affect the precision of the estimate of a product's lifetime. In this paper, we deal with the optimal design of a degradation experiment. Under the constraint that the total experimental cost does not exceed a predetermined budget, the optimal decision variables are solved by minimizing the variance of the estimated 100pth percentile of the lifetime distribution of the product. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to investigate the robustness of this proposed method. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 689–706, 1999